Yell at Gatekeeper
With opening night less than a week away, the Blackhawks are down to some tough decisions with their roster. We talked at length about the options on Tuesday night's Shoutcast, but there are some real questions. I'm going to break down some of the upcoming roster decisions or at least try to lay them out in a logical manner. This doesn't mean Joel Quenneville will decide to use the logical method. Next, we look at maybe the most volatile of positions, the defense.
The Blackhawks defense became a huge point of contention the day Niklas Hjalmarsson was traded to the desert earlier this summer. As far as roster spots go, there are either slam dunks or complete question marks. Nothing in between. I will start with the top end slam dunks. Duncan Keith, Brent Seabook and Connor Murphy are all going to unequivocally be every day players for this year's Blackhawks team.
Keith is 34 years old, and logs an inhumane amount of time on ice. He also began to have knee issues last season, and missed some time as a result. Joel Quenneville is, no doubt, going to ride his horse right into the ground, and get as many miles as he can on the way. Duncan Keith, though, is still playing at a top 10 defenseman level, so we'll just have to take each coming season one at a time. Until he really drops off, fans can just blissfully and ignorantly believe it'll last forever.
Brent Seabrook gets a bum rap for all he does and just keeps dragging marginal partners around on his back, like Master-Blaster from Mad Max, season after season. Sure, he makes a hefty salary, and sure he's not 25 any more, but the guy is an anchor (not in a bad way) in helping to bring along young players. Losing Hjalmarsson was most likely a bigger loss, but Seabrook is not that far behind. Until he cannot perform as one of the top 3 defensemen on this team, he needs to be embraced. He is also not going anywhere until there is a defined replacement, and right now there isn't anyone even close. So, get the thought of trading him out of your head right now.
Connor Murphy might be the second best defender on this team in the very near future but, at the moment, he is the third. When real games are played and he's not lost in the rotation of bums, he will probably show us more than he has thus far. Murphy has been adequate when in the lineup, but the Blackhawks will certainly need more from him. That said, asking him to be Niklas Hjalmarsson is just unfair. Fans need to set open minded expectations for Murphy. He is only 24, and has already logged a full seasons worth of games more than Hjalmarsson did at the same age. Murphy has also been used differently, in Arizona. His defensive zone starts, last season, were higher than Nik Hjalmarrson's ever have been at 58.5%. As a result, and not unexpectedly, his possession numbers were lower as well. I have an open mind, and I'm going to give him at least a full season, before I cast judgement. I suggest you join in.
The next wave of players are not just one notch below the top three but, probably, two notches. This is not to say that they will be awful, because there is a lot to look forward to. So, walk with me down the middle of the road...
The first player, based on experience, is Michal Kempny. I swung and missed, like Adam Dunn at the plate, on Kempny last season. I had high hopes for him to be the next Brent Seabrook type player, and he turned into the next Michal Rozsival. His possession metrics were actually good, on paper, but he was also heavily shielded from defensive zone starts. This season, the Blackhawks have another fellow countryman on the team to help him out and, more importantly, they ditched Joel Quenneville's little buddy Mike Kitchen. Ulf Samuelsson stepping in should help Michal Kempny's confidence. He may never reach the levels of top pair, but he can be a useful bottom 3 defender.
Speaking of Kempny's fellow countryman, Jan Rutta will be an NHL rookie at the spry age of 27. Already, he has surprised many, with his strength, size, and composure. Rutta, at least in the preseason, has been more of what I expected from Kempny last season. If he continues to play the way he has, he will be the 4th best defenseman on this team before long. He has Seabrook size, and has a smart confidence in his game that is very comforting. This might be a real Stan Bowman find.
Gustav Forsling is an enigma, plain and simple. He has all the tools to become a top 4 offensive defenseman, but his brain needs some catching up. Much like last season, we have all watched him make some very nice noticeable plays, but then had a terrible play, like in the Bruins game, where he looks like a completely lost puppy. While I think that he should start in the NHL, the best thing for him might be some AHL time, once again. He needs to really tighten his game up. On the powerplay, he is an extremely useful player, but even strength he has been hit-or-miss. I have ragged on Alex Debrincat a lot, but if you look at the numbers, it's Forsling that has been the bust so far. SO FAR. This is a 20 year old kid, too. I love that the media and fanbase have not piled on him yet. Give him time to grow, and I think the end result will be much better for everyone.
A lot of people are forgetting that Cody Franson is with the team on a Professional Tryout but, unless something drastic happens, Franson is going to get a contract offer once the season begins. With question marks in Kempny and Forsling, the Franson situation is that much more important. He's a big veteran guy that can play in all situations as a bottom pair defenseman. He's a better, older, version of Trevor van Reimsdyk. The Blackhawks will be better with him than without, so get used to seeing number 11 out there this season.
Not many people know about Jordan Oesterle. We have heard that he is a puck moving defenseman, and he has certainly gotten some playing time this preseason. I have not really noticed him do anything extremely special but, maybe, that is what we shold ask from him. Don't be noticeable. If Quenneville goes with Keith, Murphy, Seabrook, Rutta, Kempny, Franson and Forsling, Jordan Oesterle will end up in Rockford. If they decide to let Forsling percolate in Rockford for a while, then Oesterle is your 7th defenseman. Otherwise, there just isn't any room for an 8th defenseman.
Michal Rozsival is still technically on the team, but he failed his physical and probably shouldn't be in the Blackhawks plans any longer, anyway. Erik Gustafsson is a decent depth player, but there are several better options in the organization.
The last player that really intrigues me is Luc Snuggerud. He had a really nice Traverse City tournament and was having a solid training camp, until he was injured against the Redwings last week. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him get some NHL time this season, just so the Hawks know what they have. Once he's healthy, we should expect to see him get a boat load of time in Rockford, though.
Alex Debrincat, yes I know. He finally showed what everyone had been waiting for these last 14 months, the ability to produce outside of just the OHL. He amassed 5 goals in four games, including the game winner Tuesday night. Granted, 90 percent, or more, of these guys will not be in the NHL this season. This level of competition was certainly higher than the kids he was bum slaying for the last 2 seasons so, promising, yes. He still has a while to go, though. Lets see him produce in an actual NHL training camp before we raise number 12 into the United Center rafters. This is a positive step, for certain. The collective meatballs will drone on for the next week about a bunch of unreal expectations, so just sit back and listen to them waste their time and energy. He is still better off starting in the AHL, and I stand by this. None of that means anything negative, either. Let the damn kid develop. If you listen to his quotes after the game, he specifically mentions, "Rockford could be pretty good this year, but we’ll see what happens". I believe that it has already been conveyed to him that unless he has an insane training camp, which is unlikely, he will start in Rockford, as he should. Let him settle in under the radar and re-evaluate what you have after he gets his feet wet in the professional pool. If this is me being a hater, then so be it. I don't care.
Since the meatballs are more than willing to crawl up and nest in Debrincat's crotch, they should be cupping Luc Snuggerud's manhood equally, as well. But he's not the golden child, so there is no Snuggerwagon. He was just as successful this past weekend as Debrincat, he was just doing so from a different position. Does this mean he should be an early season favorite for the Norris Trophy? No. This means that the Blackhawks have yet another defensive prospect in the system that could add depth, and might develop into a nice NHL player. He is going to Rockford, as he should, where they can develop him further and let him log big minutes. Notice a pattern? DON'T RUSH KIDS FOR THE SAKE OF UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS! He could turn out to be a fine player, and I really hope he does.
I brought this up the other night, but all this stupid Debrincat-mania is burying the lead on so many other stories, like the young goalies. Matt Tomkins and Collin Delia had great weekends. Tomkins went 2-0 with an .884 save percentage, while Delia went 1-1 with a .907 save percentage. They both showed that, with JF Berube and Jeff Glass, the Blackhawks organization actually addressed a huge need this summer acquiring some depth in net. Some of this might have just been dumb luck, since the Washington Capitals were reportedly eyeing Delia pretty seriously, and Tomkins was the last remaining feasible goaltending prospect that they still held the rights for. Wouter Peeters is still years away, and Ivan Nalimov is banished somewhere in Siberia.
Two other stories that developed were that of David Kampf and Calle Dahlstrom. Both players I mentioned as "under the radar" players to watch, just a week ago. Kampf took hold of the center spot next to Debrincat, and never relinquished it. He looks like a good player that could turn into a Kruger type with some more offensive upside, even if only in the AHL. Dahlstrom has had a contentious Blackhawks career thus far, but showed improved foot speed and a knack for creating a little offense on the other end. I'm a big fan of his size, so I hope to see him in an expanded role this coming season for Rockford. I hope the change in Rockford's staff and the addition of Ulf Samuelsson really bring him along, because this team needs size on defense and Brent Seabrook won't be around forever.